Sarah Martinez had been tracking weather patterns for her farm in Central California for over two decades. Last summer, she watched her crops wither under temperatures that seemed to break every rule she’d learned about her local climate. “It felt like the weather had gone completely rogue,” she says, staring at rows of stunted tomato plants. What Sarah didn’t know was that her farm was experiencing the tail end of something much bigger—a massive shift happening thousands of miles away in the Pacific Ocean.
Now, climate scientists are warning that what Sarah experienced might just be the beginning. The Pacific is gearing up for another major climate phase that could make the extreme weather of recent years look tame by comparison.
The Pacific’s Hidden Power Over Global Weather
Think of the Pacific Ocean as the world’s largest weather machine. Right now, that machine is quietly switching gears, and the new pacific climate phase it’s entering could reshape weather patterns across every continent within the next two years.
The numbers tell a stark story. 2024 shattered temperature records worldwide, becoming the hottest year ever measured since we started keeping systematic records. But here’s what made it particularly dangerous: two powerful forces worked together like a perfect storm.
First, we had the ongoing warming from greenhouse gas emissions—the steady background heat that’s been building for decades. Second, a powerful El Niño event supercharged those temperatures even higher. When these forces align, the results are dramatic.
“El Niño years naturally run hotter than average,” explains Dr. Maria Santos, a climate researcher at the Pacific Climate Institute. “But when you layer that extra heat onto a planet already warmed by human activity, you get temperature spikes that break into completely new territory.”
Decoding the Pacific’s Climate Signals
The Pacific doesn’t just randomly heat up and cool down. It follows a predictable pattern called ENSO—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. This system swings between two main states, and understanding them is crucial for predicting what’s coming next.
During El Niño, which we just experienced, a band of water along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific becomes significantly warmer than normal. This seemingly simple change triggers a cascade of effects:
- Warmer ocean waters pump more heat and moisture into the atmosphere
- Tropical rain patterns shift dramatically eastward
- Storm tracks and jet streams get pushed off their normal paths
- Droughts intensify in some regions while others face extreme flooding
The recent El Niño, which ran from spring 2023 through spring 2024, acted like a heat amplifier for the entire planet. It helped push 2024’s temperatures into record-breaking territory and intensified droughts, floods, and storms worldwide.
| Climate Phase | Pacific Water Temperature | Global Temperature Effect | Typical Duration |
|---|---|---|---|
| El Niño | Warmer than average | Increases global temperatures | 9-12 months |
| La Niña | Cooler than average | Moderates global temperatures | 9-24 months |
| Neutral | Near average | Minimal direct effect | Variable |
But now, scientists are watching for the opposite phase to emerge. La Niña, the cooler counterpart, typically follows El Niño events. During La Niña, specific stretches of the central and eastern Pacific cool below average. Trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water toward Asia and allowing cold, nutrient-rich water to rise to the surface in the east.
“La Niña usually provides some cooling relief from El Niño’s heat boost,” notes Dr. James Chen, an oceanographer who studies Pacific temperature cycles. “But this time might be different because the background warming has intensified so much.”
Why This Next Phase Could Be More Extreme
Here’s where things get concerning. Climate models suggest that the next pacific climate phase—likely a La Niña event beginning around 2026—won’t just be business as usual. The background level of global warming has increased substantially since the last major La Niña cycle ended in 2022.
Even during La Niña’s typically cooling influence, global temperatures are expected to remain elevated compared to historical norms. This creates a troubling scenario where what used to be the “cooler” phase of the Pacific cycle still delivers extreme heat in many regions.
The implications ripple outward in concerning ways:
- Drought conditions could intensify across the American Southwest and parts of East Africa
- Hurricane seasons in the Atlantic may become more active and destructive
- Monsoon patterns across South and Southeast Asia could become more erratic
- Agricultural regions worldwide may face unprecedented growing season challenges
Australia provides a telling preview of what’s coming. During the 2020-2022 La Niña period, the continent experienced some of its most devastating flooding on record, despite La Niña typically bringing drier conditions to many regions.
“We’re seeing the climate system’s natural variability playing out on top of a much warmer baseline,” explains Dr. Elena Rodriguez, who studies extreme weather patterns. “The result is that even ‘normal’ climate phases now produce abnormal impacts.”
The Human Cost of Pacific Changes
For people like Sarah Martinez, these Pacific shifts translate into real challenges on the ground. Farmers across California’s Central Valley are already adapting planting schedules and crop varieties to cope with increasingly unpredictable weather patterns.
The next pacific climate phase will likely bring its own set of regional impacts. Areas that have grown accustomed to certain seasonal patterns may find themselves dealing with unprecedented droughts, floods, or temperature extremes.
Urban areas face particular risks. Cities that experienced record-breaking heat during the recent El Niño may not get the relief they’re expecting during the next La Niña phase. Infrastructure designed for historical climate norms could face new stress tests.
“We’re entering uncharted territory where our historical climate data becomes less reliable for predicting future conditions,” warns Dr. Santos. “Communities need to prepare for climate impacts that go beyond what they’ve experienced before.”
The economic implications are equally serious. Agricultural productivity, energy demand for cooling and heating, water resource management, and disaster preparedness all hinge on understanding these Pacific climate cycles. Getting the predictions wrong could cost billions in damages and lost productivity.
Preparing for Climate Uncertainty
The good news is that scientists are getting better at predicting these Pacific climate transitions months or even years in advance. The challenge lies in translating those predictions into actionable preparations.
Water managers in drought-prone regions are already adjusting reservoir strategies based on long-term Pacific forecasts. Agricultural extension services are helping farmers select crop varieties that can better handle temperature and precipitation extremes.
Emergency management agencies are updating their disaster response plans to account for the possibility that the next La Niña phase could deliver impacts unlike any seen in previous cycles.
For individuals, the message is clear: the climate patterns that governed weather in previous decades are shifting. What used to be predictable seasonal variations are becoming more extreme and less reliable.
FAQs
When will the next major Pacific climate phase begin?
Scientists expect La Niña conditions to develop around 2026, though the exact timing depends on ocean temperature trends over the coming months.
Will La Niña provide relief from recent extreme heat?
Not as much as in the past. Because background global temperatures have risen, even La Niña’s cooling influence may not prevent continued record-breaking heat in many regions.
How long do these Pacific climate phases typically last?
El Niño events usually persist for 9-12 months, while La Niña phases can last anywhere from 9 months to over two years.
Which regions are most affected by Pacific climate changes?
The entire planet feels these effects, but areas around the Pacific Rim—including the western Americas, East Asia, Australia, and Pacific islands—typically see the strongest impacts.
Can these Pacific cycles be predicted accurately?
Scientists can forecast the likelihood of El Niño or La Niña developing 6-9 months in advance with reasonable accuracy, though predicting their exact strength and duration remains challenging.
Should people start preparing differently for weather extremes?
Yes. The combination of natural Pacific cycles with ongoing global warming means communities should prepare for weather impacts that may exceed historical norms, even during typically milder climate phases.
