Maria Santos has been running fishing tours off Panama’s Pacific coast for fifteen years. Every January, she tells her customers the same thing: “Get ready for the water to turn emerald green and cold enough to make you shiver.” Her guests love watching dolphins chase schools of sardines through the nutrient-rich waters that surge up from the deep ocean floor.
This year, Maria found herself staring at unusually warm, crystal-clear blue water instead. No green algae blooms. No feeding frenzies. Just an eerily quiet sea that left both her and marine scientists scratching their heads.
What Maria witnessed wasn’t just a bad fishing day. For the first time in at least four decades, Panama’s deep waters upwelling completely failed to occur during the 2025 dry season, marking an unprecedented shift that has oceanographers around the world concerned about what this means for tropical marine ecosystems.
When Nature’s Annual Clock Simply Stopped Ticking
Every year from December to April, Panama’s Gulf experiences one of nature’s most reliable phenomena. Strong trade winds sweep down from Central America, pushing warm surface waters away from the coast and allowing ice-cold, nutrient-packed deep waters to rush upward to replace them.
This process, known as upwelling, transforms the entire marine ecosystem almost overnight. Water temperatures can drop by 10 degrees Celsius in just days. The cold water carries nitrogen, phosphorus, and other nutrients that feed microscopic algae, which in turn support everything from tiny sardines to massive tuna.
“It’s like someone forgot to flip the switch this year,” explains Dr. Rachel Martinez, a marine biologist who has studied Panama’s upwelling system for over a decade. “We kept waiting for the usual blast of cold water, but it just never came.”
Satellite images that typically show brilliant green patches of chlorophyll remained stubbornly blue throughout the entire dry season. Research vessels equipped with temperature sensors found surface waters staying at 28-29°C when they should have plummeted to 18-20°C.
The Missing Pieces of Panama’s Ocean Puzzle
The failure of Panama deep waters upwelling represents more than just a scientific curiosity. This small but mighty ocean system punches far above its weight in supporting marine life and coastal communities.
Here’s what makes this upwelling system so crucial:
- Fisheries support: Local catches typically surge during upwelling periods as fish follow the food chain
- Coral protection: Cold water acts as a thermal shield during marine heatwaves
- Tourism impact: Cooler waters moderate coastal temperatures during peak visitor season
- Ecosystem foundation: Nutrients fuel the entire food web from plankton to large predators
The research team from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute documented this unprecedented event using multiple monitoring systems:
| Measurement | Normal Upwelling Period | 2025 Observed Values |
|---|---|---|
| Surface Temperature | 18-22°C | 28-29°C |
| Chlorophyll Levels | High (green water) | Very Low (blue water) |
| Wind Strength | Strong trade winds | Unusually weak |
| Nutrient Concentration | Elevated | Background levels |
“What we’re seeing is completely outside the normal range of variability,” notes Dr. James Wilson from the Max Planck Institute, co-author of the study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “This isn’t just a weak upwelling year – it’s a complete absence.”
When the Ocean’s Breath Fails, Who Feels It First?
The collapse of Panama deep waters upwelling sends ripple effects through multiple layers of society. Local fishing communities report dramatically reduced catches during what should have been their most productive season.
Small-scale fishers like Carlos Rodriguez have noticed the change immediately. “The sardines didn’t come this year,” he explains while mending nets that would normally be heavy with fish by now. “Without the cold water bringing up food from the bottom, there’s nothing for them to eat near the surface.”
Tourism operators face their own challenges. Dive shops that promote encounters with large schools of fish during upwelling season found themselves scrambling to explain empty reefs to disappointed visitors. Hotel managers along the coast noticed guests complaining more about heat without the usual cooling sea breeze that accompanies cold upwelling waters.
But perhaps most concerning are the long-term implications for coral reefs. These underwater ecosystems have survived recent marine heatwaves partly because upwelling events provided crucial cooling relief. Without that thermal protection, reefs become more vulnerable to bleaching and death.
“We’re essentially watching a natural air conditioning system fail,” explains marine ecologist Dr. Sarah Chen. “These reefs have been counting on those cold water surges to survive increasingly hot ocean temperatures.”
The broader scientific community is closely monitoring whether this represents a one-time anomaly or signals a more permanent shift in tropical ocean circulation patterns. Climate models have long predicted that warming oceans could disrupt upwelling systems, but seeing it happen in real-time provides sobering confirmation.
Early indicators suggest wind patterns may be shifting due to changes in atmospheric pressure systems across the Pacific. If trade winds continue weakening, Panama’s upwelling could become increasingly unreliable, fundamentally altering one of the region’s most productive marine ecosystems.
For now, researchers are expanding monitoring efforts and working with local communities to document impacts. The hope is that understanding this unprecedented event will help predict and potentially mitigate future disruptions to these critical ocean systems.
FAQs
What exactly is upwelling and why does it matter?
Upwelling occurs when winds push surface water away from the coast, allowing cold, nutrient-rich deep water to rise up and feed marine ecosystems. It’s like nature’s fertilizer system for the ocean.
Has Panama’s upwelling ever failed before?
Not in recorded history spanning at least 40 years of scientific observations. This 2025 failure represents the first complete absence of the seasonal upwelling event.
Could this be related to climate change?
Scientists are investigating the connection, as climate models predict that warming could weaken wind patterns that drive upwelling systems worldwide.
Will the upwelling return next year?
It’s too early to tell whether this represents a permanent shift or a one-time anomaly. Researchers are closely monitoring wind patterns and ocean conditions for the next upwelling season.
How does this affect people who don’t fish or dive?
Upwelling influences coastal temperatures, local weather patterns, and tourism economies. Its absence can make coastal areas hotter and impact businesses that depend on marine resources.
Are other upwelling systems around the world experiencing similar problems?
Some upwelling regions have shown signs of weakening, but Panama’s complete failure appears to be unique so far. Scientists are monitoring other systems for similar disruptions.
